Repeated strikes on merchant ships are turning the war between Russia and Ukraine into a major concern for NATO. The repercussions are also being felt in Romania and Bulgaria, two Alliance members with Black Sea coastlines.
The maritime conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is expanding beyond combat zones and affecting the security interests of NATO countries in the region.
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Military analysts have little doubt that Russia is behind the latest attacks. Maritime security company Ambrey noted that the drone recorded during the latest strike resembled a model used by the Russian navy.
“It is undoubtedly an escalation,” said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), based in London.
Moscow denies using drones to strike Ukraine’s neighboring states. The Kremlin, meanwhile, accuses European governments of escalating the conflict by providing military aid to Kyiv.
Many of the ships struck in October were near a strategic channel in Romania, or were traveling toward or away from it. Ukraine uses this channel for its exports.
One ship was struck in Romanian territorial waters, while eight others were in the exclusive economic zones of Romania or Bulgaria.
Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, says Russia is calibrating its attacks, counting on the West’s reluctance to take action that could lead to a direct confrontation.
“This is about testing these red lines, fully aware that we will do everything to take the most minimal measures possible,” Joja said.
She linked this approach to incidents in recent years in which Russian drones have violated NATO airspace.
According to an Alliance official, Russia’s actions are intended to persuade allies not to support Ukraine and pose a serious security risk. He stressed that NATO remains determined to defend all its members, including those on the Black Sea.
The Black Sea’s importance to Romania is tied to both trade and energy security.
The Neptun Deep project, which aims to extract natural gas offshore, is being developed in these waters. The project is expected to make Romania the European Union’s largest gas producer.
During August, a maritime drone approached the project site, adding to concerns about protecting energy infrastructure.
Bucharest has described the pattern of Russian attacks on civilian ships as “systematic,” but has so far stopped short of blaming Moscow for specific incidents, arguing that evidence and verification are needed.
Bulgaria has not directly accused Russia, but has said some attacks appear to serve its interests.
Concerns are growing as Washington reviews its military presence in Europe and shifts its strategic focus toward China. Last year, the United States withdrew about 1,000 troops from Romania.
The increase in attacks is damaging one of the most important maritime corridors for oil and grain exports for both Ukraine and Russia.
Tomas Alexa, a senior analyst at Ambrey Analytics, said Russia and Ukraine struck a combined total of 317 merchant ships and other vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov from May through October. That figure is more than four times the 74 ships struck during the preceding six months.
The frequency of attacks has varied over time. Ambrey data show that Ukraine carried out 137 attacks on ships in the third quarter, while Russia carried out 92. In October alone, Russia struck 38 ships and Ukraine five.
Strikes on ports and ships have significantly reduced exports and forced both countries to seek alternative ways to transport goods.
Russian export data obtained by Reuters show that Russia shipped only 300,000 tonnes of grain through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in September. In the same month last year, the volume was 4.74 million tonnes.
Ukraine suspended operations at its Black Sea ports in late July following Russian attacks.
To keep shipments moving, Kyiv shifted some exports to river ports on the Danube. The goods then travel through Romania’s Sulina Channel and along sea routes off the Romanian coast.
However, this solution has not made up for the losses. Ukrainian grain exports through ports fell to 810,000 tonnes in September, down from 2.1 million tonnes in the same period last year.
Andriy Ryzhenko, a naval analyst and former senior Ukrainian navy official, believes Russia’s main aim is to further reduce Ukraine’s exports. Another objective, he said, is to test NATO’s resolve.
Last week’s attack took place as the defense ministers and military leaders of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey were meeting in Sofia to discuss Black Sea security.
The Turkish defense minister called on Russia and Ukraine to stop attacks on shipping. Ankara is awaiting responses from Moscow and Kyiv to a proposal for a limited ceasefire at sea.
Turkey plays an important role because, under the Montreux Convention, it controls the passage of warships through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.
Egypt, Turkey and India are among the countries that have called for a maritime ceasefire. The aim is to avert the economic consequences of disruptions to shipping at a time when global fuel and grain prices have risen.
On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said international interest in a limited ceasefire was growing.
Russia has rejected the proposal, arguing that such an agreement would give Ukraine time to recover and strengthen its position.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that continued attacks on agricultural exports could have serious consequences.
“Everyone is talking about oil and forgetting about grain. In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis,” he said.
Developments in the Black Sea are thus extending beyond the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv, putting NATO’s security, international trade and global energy and food supplies at risk.
