A study published 66 years ago has resurfaced on social media because of the date it mentioned: November 13, 2026. According to the model presented at the time, unchecked growth in the world’s population would bring humanity to a critical point.
The study was published in November 1960 in the scientific journal “Science”. Its authors were physicist and cyberneticist Heinz von Foerster, along with University of Illinois researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot.
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Under the title “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” they examined historical data on the world’s population from 400 BC to 1958.
Their calculations showed that the number of people on Earth was growing ever faster. If that rate continued unchanged, the mathematical model placed a so-called singularity on November 13, 2026: a point at which the population would, theoretically, become infinite. Such a situation would be unsustainable because space and natural resources are limited.
The choice of date also had symbolic significance. November 13 was von Foerster’s birthday, and the researchers noted that the date would fall on a Friday in 2026. In Anglo-Saxon culture, that combination is associated with bad luck.
Although the title sounded alarming, the authors were not predicting an actual catastrophe or the physical extinction of humanity. The study’s message was that population growth cannot continue indefinitely.
Later demographic developments did not follow the trend on which the prediction was based. Beginning in the 1970s, the rate of world population growth slowed significantly, and birth rates fell in many countries.
The world’s population is currently estimated at around 8.2 billion. United Nations projections forecast that it will continue to grow for several decades, peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s and then begin a gradual decline.
So November 13, 2026 is not the end of humanity. The 1960 prediction shows that a mathematical model can lead to mistaken conclusions when it assumes the same trend will continue forever without accounting for social changes.
The question raised by the researchers more than six decades ago, however, remains important: how can a balance be maintained between population growth, natural resources and the sustainability of the planet?
