A wave of strikes on merchant shipping in the Black Sea has left at least 30 seafarers dead or missing. The fact that attacks are taking place near the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members, has raised alarm over the protection of shipping and the continuity of international trade.
According to CNN, Russian drone attacks on merchant ships have increased significantly in recent weeks. Civilian crews have suffered casualties, while shipping along this commercially vital route for the region has faced growing risks.
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The toll of at least 30 seafarers killed or missing in the latest attacks is based on information from Romanian and Bulgarian authorities and maritime monitoring services.
Security and maritime transport sources believe Moscow aims to block trade through Ukraine’s ports. Almost all Ukrainian grain exports leave from these ports.
The location of some strikes is particularly concerning: they have been recorded near or within Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters, bringing the threat closer to NATO’s borders.
In recent operations, Russian forces have combined naval and aerial drones. These include new jet-powered models that are faster and harder to destroy, while some can also strike moving targets.
Last week, the container ship Contship Jet was hit by three drones as it approached a Romanian port. A French surveillance aircraft recorded footage showing a naval drone heading toward it before the ship listed sharply and sank. When the strike occurred, Contship Jet was just 25 kilometers from the Bulgarian coast.
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, says the increase in these strikes is making the Black Sea unsafe for civilian shipping.
The latest campaign of attacks began in early October. Alfa Watan, a Turkish-owned ship sailing from Egypt to the Romanian port of Sulina, was attacked by aerial and naval drones. The ship sank, and nine Syrian crew members and one Egyptian national were killed.
Six days later, HS Dignity was struck near the Bulgarian coast. Eleven seafarers, most of them Syrian nationals, were killed in the attack.
Mohammad Hajjouz, a Syrian activist who defends seafarers’ rights, said that after the initial strike, crew members spotted an unmanned surface vessel heading toward the ship.
Heavy waves prevented the lifeboats from being fully launched, forcing some of the sailors to jump into the sea.
Four other merchant ships were attacked on October 15. Romania’s foreign minister, Oana-Silvia Toiu, said the strikes, which claimed eight more lives, also affected Romanian territorial waters and its exclusive economic zone.
Near the Sulina Canal, the waterway linking the Black Sea to the Danube River, the attacks set two chemical tankers, Wine Trader and Yara J, on fire.
Wine Trader’s operator said the ship had been hit by three drones. Six Beninese nationals and one Russian national were killed on board.
The growing threats have put NATO countries on alert. Mark Rutte, the alliance’s secretary general, said NATO had increased its presence on its eastern flank in response.
Bulgaria, for its part, has asked the alliance to deploy fighter jets and counter-drone systems. The country is also considering joining a joint NATO initiative to counter these unmanned vehicles.
Romania has stepped up F-16 patrol flights along its coastline. In late October, one of these aircraft shot down two latest-generation Russian drones over the country’s territorial waters.
Authorities in Bucharest have also announced that they are accelerating investment in Black Sea surveillance, as well as equipment to detect and neutralize mines and drones.
However, these measures have not dispelled the deep uncertainty facing shipping companies. Ship traffic to Ukrainian ports has fallen significantly, and insurance costs have risen.
The risks extend beyond shipping, as the strikes could also have direct consequences for global food markets.
Around 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports pass through the Black Sea. Ukraine accounts for around 15% of global corn exports and 10% of wheat exports, while ranking first worldwide in sunflower oil exports.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has stressed the Black Sea’s vital importance to global food security. He has warned that Russian strikes threaten both freedom of navigation and supplies of staple goods.
The Joint War Committee, responsible for assessing risks for the London insurance market, has meanwhile expanded its map of high-risk areas. This category now covers almost the entire Black Sea region, except for Turkish, Romanian, Bulgarian and Georgian territorial waters.
Donald Trump’s US administration has criticized attacks by both sides on merchant ships. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukrainian strikes had also hit ships carrying oil for American companies, but added that he did not believe Ukraine had deliberately targeted them.
In response to the situation, security experts are calling on NATO and countries in the region to expand their counter-drone defense capabilities, alongside a stronger air and ground presence in Romania and Bulgaria.
Dimitar Bechev, who heads the Dahrendorf Programme at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, believes Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria could do more to protect freedom of navigation in the Black Sea.
Analyst David Axe, meanwhile, believes the reciprocal strikes by Ukraine and Russia are inflicting damage on both sides without giving either a lasting advantage.
Civilian crews and shipping businesses continue to bear the brunt of the consequences. As attacks move ever closer to NATO countries’ waters, the danger in the Black Sea no longer affects only the warring parties, but also international trade and food security worldwide.
